On the other hand, if the Lipstick Effect is strong and old beauty habits remain, then even a stunted economic recovery won’t hold the industry back. If consumer habits around beauty have significantly changed, if the Lipstick Effect turns out to be an illusion, or if the pandemic and economic turmoil keep pummeling the industry, then you might face a lack of business and a quick path to failure. Right now, that’s a big gamble, with a potentially big long-term payoff. By teaming up with one through a franchise agreement, you might be able to fill one of those gaps. This has left gaps in the coverage of the salon industry, which big brands have the finances, the profile, and the knowledge to exploit. A large proportion of the businesses that have shut down were sole proprietors, who lacked the funds to ride out the storm or the brand profile to fuel a fast recovery. Ironically, this damage to the industry as a whole might provide an opportunity for franchises. But the duration of the pandemic meant that it changed long-term habits, and that many existing salons ran out of money and were forced to shut before any bounce-back could come. Hair salons were considered by many to be largely immune to economic downturns because so few people cut their own hair anymore, even when money is tight. Instead of being among the quickest industries to bounce back, both from COVID restrictions and from the economic downturn that the disease triggered, the salon and beauty sector remains a shadow of its former self. Whether or not there’s truth in this effect, it hasn’t significantly benefited the salon sector. These figures have called into question the “Lipstick Effect”: the idea that, even in tough times, people indulge in smaller expenditures such as cosmetics that make them feel good about themselves. Some commentators expected a strong, fast bounce back, but the industry only reached $42.8 billion in 2021, nearly a third down from its pre-pandemic height.
The industry fell from a value of $66 billion in 2019, to $39.7 billion in 2020, as revenues plummeted and many businesses were forced to shut. Public health restrictions forced shops to close, customers became more reticent to come to salons, and the economic impact meant that people had less money to spend on looking good, as well as less need to do so when they weren’t going out.
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